Wednesday, October 06, 2004
to poll or not to poll
The Left Coaster: Why You Should Ignore The Gallup Poll This Morning - And Maybe Other Gallup Polls As Well
Well, this is interesting. The Left Coaster is asserting that Gallup's polls are fundamentally flawed because they include a larger percentage of Republican likely voters than is actually predicted to vote. Let me try that again - Gallup is reporting that 36-40% of the likely votes in their polls will vote Republican. But in the last several presidential elections, the actual turnout of Republican votes was closer to 33%. So... unless there's going to be a huge change in who votes this time around, Gallup is overestimating Bush's lead.
If you want to read more about how polling currently works, have a look at this Salon article (you can get a free day pass by watching an ad).
Well, this is interesting. The Left Coaster is asserting that Gallup's polls are fundamentally flawed because they include a larger percentage of Republican likely voters than is actually predicted to vote. Let me try that again - Gallup is reporting that 36-40% of the likely votes in their polls will vote Republican. But in the last several presidential elections, the actual turnout of Republican votes was closer to 33%. So... unless there's going to be a huge change in who votes this time around, Gallup is overestimating Bush's lead.
If you want to read more about how polling currently works, have a look at this Salon article (you can get a free day pass by watching an ad).
